Barbarians to China: "Do not be afraid."

Keeping in mind that Chinese diplomats lived for generations by the dictum that it is wisest for the inheritors of the Middle Kingdom to "let barbarians take care of barbarians," Quillnews believes that we have entered an age when, for the first time in history, the destinies of China and the barbarians depend on each other. It is for this reason that it is profoundly good news that the US and Chinese have agreed to hold regular talks on a range of issues so that both sides get a clue what the other is thinking. 

The guys who are in charge of the guns in the US take their duties very seriously regarding China and its intensions, and behavior. This is as it should be for those who love the US, the Republic for which it stands, and peace. But it is also a fact of life that China is ruled by a political tyranny

1. Where nobody trusts anybody to tell the truth,
2. Where it impossible to measure or value anything accurately,
3. Where government power is wielded in secret and without the free consent of the governed, and
4. Where some top gun wannabes patrolling the South China Sea can shoot down a US plane, as they did in April 2001, and then lie about it to their country's leaders when asked about what happened. 

As WP's Jim Hoagland succinctly said: (The) issue is the continuing emergence of China simultaneously as a global economic power and manufacturing hub, a regional military Goliath with irredentist claims, a diplomatic lightweight unwilling to lead constructively at the United Nations or elsewhere, a Leninist dictatorship that abuses the human rights of its people, and much more.

This is not a firm foundation on which to build a trusting environment that ensures peace and prosperity. In the last century East Asia was a bloody slaughterhouse. Much of the ferocity of these conflicts derived from the intense desire of the peoples of the countries that are on the periphery of China to remain independent of China. (Note: Quillnews credits the argument that much of Japan's motivation before World War II was a version of an insecure cultural paranoia that drove Japanese rulers to believe that only Imperialist expansion could prevent domination by China).  Today Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, Australia and the trading nations of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) all have a stake in peace in East Asia and all have the US as allies, trading partners and friends, and in some cases, South Korea and Australia for example, blood brothers-in-arms who will die to ensure each other’s liberty. 

The US has as the point man on these bilateral China-US talks Bob Zoellick, Condi Rice's No. 2 at State, who is ideally suited to the chore. Zoellick is a trusted Bush insider who speaks with the boss often and knows what is what. This is important for the Chinese to know.  As the senior negotiators sit down to begin these regular meetings, it is also important for the Chinese to know that the barbarians are taking care of the barbarians.  Some recent developments:

• Australia and Indonesia – The cooperation generated in the wake of East Timor’s independence and the tsunami relief in Sumatra has cut through years of suspicion and distrust.  Australia's largest foreign policy challenge is its huge northern neighbor, and the recent defense agreement is a huge step forward for regional stability. (BBC)
  
• Australia and ASEAN – The inclusion of Australia is the growing ASEAN network of relations makes good sense for everybody – not only on trade, but also on developing the trust necessary to end generations of racist and chauvinistic suspicions. (IHT)
• Australia and US – The military alliance between the US and Australia is as strong as any in the world. (USProfile, Australian) The Free Trade Agreement in 2004 also paves the way for these two countries to become even more interconnected.
• India and US – The recent trip by Sec Rice highlighted the renewed drive for cooperation between the US and India. (IHT, DEL, DEL2, WS, WSJ) The US is not only mending fences and building influence with Pakistan (post Sept 11), the realities of the war on terror are driving India and Pakistan to stop the game of nuclear chicken they’ve been playing for years over Kashmir. (DEL, DEL2, DEL3, Slate).  As noted in the WSJ above, the money quote: At a State Department briefing last Friday, a spokesman explained that the U.S. "goal is to help India become a major world power in the 21st century. We understand fully the implications, including military implications, of that statement." Beyond the issue of the jets, the briefer explained, "the U.S. is willing to discuss even more fundamental issues of defense transformation with India, including transformative systems in areas such as command and control, early warning and missile defense."  (Quillnews, USProfile)
• East Asia and US – The US is a Pacific power that plays a crucial role in the region’s stability. (SPI, WS, WS2, SDSpeech, SDProfile, SDProfile2) The righteous destruction of Japan’s Greater East Asian Co-prosperity Sphere during World War II created the geopolitical imperative for every country in East Asia to have the US at the table when dealing with the ambitions and/or fears of any one country in the region.  The willingness of the US to stand by allies in Korea and Vietnam, sacrificing blood and treasure, earned the US huge face, despite the heart break of the Red’s takeover of Vietnam. (Despite the departure of the US from Vietnam, Americans made millions of friends and even the eventual grudging respect of the victors, who now welcome Americans and their trade back. Quillnews favorite rumor: Cam Ranh Bay as new US Naval base). Japan, despite its national progress, cultural maturity and positive economic contributions remains blind to the face of its neighbors, perpetuating distrust, fear and contempt from its neighbors. (IHT, BBC, BBC2) Any suggestion that the countries will ban together in a Confucian federation is a naïve fantasy. Not to put too fine a point to it, but the people of the region – on some pretty important levels – are often less civil than English soccer fans; they simply don’t like each other very much. (WSJ, IHT) And despite the cultural superiority felt by ethnic Chinese and their five thousand year old civilization, the reason that Korea, Vietnam and Japan (to name just three) exist at all is because the people who inhabit those parts have insisted for millennia that they would not be Chinese! They all look to the US to help keep their national identities alive. (Asia Cable on Island disputes)

So China must see that muscular barbarians are allied and cooperating in dealing with each other and with China. The regions needs every avenue of transparency and trust that it can find and develop – including trade. The wildcard problems that threaten everyone in the region remain: 1) Taiwan’s legacy (WSJ, IHT, DEL, DEL2, BBC); 2) the ability of Japan, China and Korea to take offense and the continuing distrust sewed by Japan's still unacknowledged brutality during conquest and occupations in Korea, China, Indonesia, Singapore and elsewhere in Asia; 3) the irrationality and lethal potential of North Korea’s current regime; 4) the mischief members of the EU or Russia could play in sewing dissention to leverage short-term advantage (CST, IHT, IHT2, Slate, WT); and 5) the continuing religious persecution by Chinese rulers and the inevitable power of Providence to shape events through earthy agents – including the Vatican. (WT, BBC, WSJ, Publius Pundit)

Quillnews advice to China's rulers:  Nix with the jack-boot. Take a chill. As Pope John Paul II said: “Do not be afraid.”